As anyone who hasn’t been living under a rock knows, the United States has a very important election coming up in November. After weeks of battling to maintain his political standing, and vehemently claiming that he would not withdraw after a disastrous debate, President Biden’s sudden withdrawal from the electoral race did not occur during an Oval Office speech or a campaign rally. Instead, it was announced through a letter posted on social media. As my own global affairs experience is a tad rusty, the mysterious manner in which Biden withdrew made me wonder how one who currently works in international affairs would view, and analyze, these recent events.
I recently had the opportunity to interview renowned international affairs consultant, Mukhlis Mukhlis. Mukhlis has years of diverse experience in private business and organizational leadership and more than two decades worth of experience encompassing national security, counterterrorism, and critical operations support. With his focus on geopolitical challenges, regional conflicts, and government affairs in the Middle East and North Africa regions, I was very interested to hear his views on the current political landscape in the U.S.
Mukhlis has a unique background, to say the least. Although born in the U.S., he spent a majority of his childhood in the Middle East due to his parents’ professions and obligations. He attended primary and middle schools in Baghdad, and then attended high school in Amman, Jordan, after leaving Iraq. His father is a highly regarded doctor with extensive experience in both public and private healthcare. He has held various positions in the Middle East and Europe, including professor, medical consultant, and has contributed to international medical and humanitarian aid efforts. His mother is an attorney and a member of the Iraqi and the Jordanian bar associations, specializing in the fields of social affairs and human rights.
Mukhlis’ childhood was very interesting and full of events, mixed experiences, and memories. Growing up in a war-torn country, and living in a society where every family has been torn apart by one of the endless wars, has had a great impact on developing his political views and beliefs about the Middle East region in general, and Iraq in particular. This perspective bleeds into his views and ability to truly analyze the dire situation in which Americans currently find themselves.
When asked about Biden’s sudden withdrawal from the presidential race, Mukhlis replied that it was not really a surprise, it was expected. He noted, however, that the way in which it happened is a matter of concern. The understated method of disclosure, a social media post, marked one of the most significant decisions in recent American political history. Never before has a president exited a reelection campaign this close to Election Day. If anything, this development highlights the significant influence wielded by key figures within the Democrat party over the entire process. When referring to the process, he is not solely addressing the electoral race. Rather, he is encompassing everything that pertains to the governance process and its profound impact on the lives of the American people as a collective nation and the United States as a country.
Following Biden’s decision to withdraw from the election the domestic political landscape in the U.S. is one of uncertainty and speculation among the public, as they contemplate the potential consequences of this development. Additionally, it has sparked debates and discussions regarding the president’s ability to successfully fulfill the remainder of his term. Mukhlis believes there is a high likelihood that President Biden will constitutionally transfer the remainder of his term to Vice President Kamala Harris due to health conditions, or something of that nature. In this scenario, Vice President Harris would temporarily assume the presidency until the end of the term. Irrespective of the course of action taken by the Democrat party, including a sole focus on the nomination of Ms. Harris, their position remains vulnerable unless there are other high profile candidates being prepared behind the scenes.
Consequences of the Assassination Attempt on President Trump
The July 13, 2024 assassination attempt on President Donald Trump has vast electoral and political consequences for both the Republican and Democrat parties. Mukhlis believes that, while unfortunate, the incident resulted in increasing the public credit of President Trump. This led to a noticeable shift in the sympathy towards President Trump among a high percentage of Americans. The main point that resonates with Americans in general is the rejection and condemnation of any act of violence or hatred driven by political competition, regardless of the motives.
In his view, the recent attempts to undermine President Trump’s character and reputation, whether through personal, political, legal, or economic means, and the subsequent assassination attempt, clearly demonstrate the concerns of Trump’s opponents regarding his increasing popularity. It also reveals the fear of his opponents of the expansion of Trump’s support base and the potential disintegration of the foundation on which the Democrat party relies.
Mukhlis evaluates President Donald Trump’s position in the upcoming election as being more favorable to secure the presidency than in the previous campaign he ran. He went on to explain that people must not forget the adversities President Trump endured at the hands of his opponents, and the ruthless campaign to tarnish his personal reputation and relentlessly targeting him in every public, political, social, economic, and legal aspect. Ultimately, the recent assassination attempt he faced tipped the scales and heightened the stakes, significantly increasing President Trump’s public approval rating.
The Global Impact of the U.S. Election
Mukhlis believes that the outcome of November’s events will have significant global ramifications. The regional and international landscape and the developments occurring worldwide could influence the selection of the next occupant of the White House. The world can only anticipate and observe the unfolding events.
Unforeseen conflicts like the wars in Ukraine and Gaza can significantly affect the future of the U.S. presidency as well as serve as a major driver shaping the presidency. Major conflicts like these influence foreign policy, divert attention from domestic issues, impact the president’s popularity, and negatively impact the national security and the domestic coherence.
However, it is crucial to differentiate between the war in Ukraine and the military operations in Gaza, particularly in terms of President Biden’s administration. The administration’s involvement in the Ukrainian-Russian conflict is based on geostrategic and geopolitical factors. It is important to understand that President Biden’s withdrawal from the election race will not impact military operations and aid to Ukraine, as long as his team remains in power.
As for President Trump, it is unequivocal that in the event of his success in the upcoming elections, he will undoubtedly seek to bring an end to the conflict in Ukraine and reconfigure the dynamics in Europe, particularly within the framework of NATO.
To clarify, the change in political administration in Washington does not imply a withdrawal of support for the Ukrainian people. On the contrary, it suggests the exploration of new political mechanisms and channels of dialogue, which President Trump has demonstrated proficiency in, as an alternative to conflict, destruction, and the consequential losses.
On the other hand, the Israeli military operations in Gaza have a different dimension. While acknowledging the devastating humanitarian consequences of the ongoing military operations on the Palestinians, it is crucial to recognize that the Israeli government did not initiate this war but rather found it imposed upon them following the tragic massacre perpetrated by Hamas on October 7th. The urgent need to deescalate the crisis and swiftly end the military operation is widely acknowledged. However, the hostage crisis poses a significant obstacle to finding a resolution to the overall crisis.
The first step in resolving this conflict is by releasing all hostages immediately. It is imperative to pursue a transformative solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This entails initiating a comprehensive peace process that safeguards the rights of both sides and establishes lasting security and stability in the region.
In Mukhlis’ personal assessment, should President Trump secure victory in the upcoming election, there is a significant likelihood that he will spearhead the initiation of a comprehensive peace process. By collaborating with his allies in the Middle East, addressing the imminent and constant threat posed by the Iranian regime and its regional proxies, and building upon solid and unwavering commitments, President Trump has a prime opportunity to formulate a roadmap for a unique peace process, ultimately fostering enduring security and stability in the region.
As an expert in foreign affairs, particularly U.S. foreign policy and national security matters related to the Middle East, Mukhlis explained that it is crucial to recognize that the foreign policy of the Biden administration is a continuation of President Obama’s administration, both in terms of overall political approach and ideology, as well as the influential team within the Biden administration that bridges the gap between two eras. There is no denying that the Biden administration has displayed unwarranted vulnerability in its handling of various political and military matters concerning the Middle East, which fundamentally impact the national security of the United States. This includes the disorderly withdrawal from Afghanistan, the attempt to revive the nuclear agreement with Iran, and the inadequate response to repeated attacks by Iraqi militias affiliated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard on American interests and installations in the Middle East, particularly in Iraq.
Furthermore, the current administration’s intention to once again withdraw from Iraq, after providing several years of military, advisory, and logistical assistance in the fight against the Islamic State, paves the way for Iran to advance its expansionist agenda in the Middle East and North Africa. This decision also creates an opportunity for radical movements and terrorist organizations, such as Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, to reemerge and fill the security void in the absence of American military support.
On the other hand, the previous Trump administration was distinguished by its meticulous approach to foreign relations, the clear direction of its foreign policy in the Middle East, and the establishment of robust strategic and economic alliances during that time. The key distinction in this context lies in President Trump’s unwavering commitment to pursuing initiatives that would bolster the stability of the United States and improve the welfare of the American people.
Mukhlis has no doubt that a new term for President Trump will restore the American position and bring back the bright shine to the country again. As someone who has not only witnessed, but lived, the collapse of a once-vibrant Iraq, I am inclined to believe him. It is a choice between following a dull path to failed policies that have never worked and taking a well-paved road to a brightly shining beacon on a hill that so many still aspire to climb.
This article was originally published on OpsLens.com.